Newcastle, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

700
FXUS64 KOUN 131814
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1214 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Above-normal temperatures this afternoon with elevated fire
  weather conditions across central and southern Oklahoma and
  western-north Texas.

- A cold front Tuesday night will usher in a return towards
  seasonable temperatures and gusty northerly winds on Wednesday.
  Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected during the
  afternoon.

- A stronger cold front late in the week may bring additional
  periods of gusty winds and fire weather conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1212 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Very warm temperatures today nearly 15-20 degrees above normal in
the 60s to some areas of lower 70s. With little recovery of RHs
overnight and quick rising temperatures today, expect pretty
widespread RH values this afternoon in the teens (13 to 20 percent)
across all but northern Oklahoma. Winds are expected to remain below
15 mph today with higher gusts up to 25 mph. A Rangeland Fire Danger
Statement is in effect through 6 PM for elevated fire weather
conditions across much of the area south of I-44, including western
north Texas. If winds overachieve this afternoon, there could be
some spotty areas of near-critical fire weather conditions that
develop across the aforementioned area.

An embedded shortwave in the main trough axis across the northeast
CONUS will dig into the Plains tonight. A cold front will push south
across the forecast area late tonight bringing northerly winds and
increasing mid-to-high cloud cover. There may be a presence of some
light echoes, virga, on radar tonight with the passing front. A 40-
45 knot low-level jet overnight tonight will bring increasing wind
speeds through sunrise Wednesday morning. North winds of roughly 10
to 20 mph and gusts up to 20 to 30 mph with some locally higher
gusts possible. Despite mild overnight lows tonight being only about
10 degrees below normal highs, gusty winds will bring the "feels
like" temperatures back into the upper 20s to 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1212 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

As the sun rises heading into Wednesday morning, stronger winds will
begin to mix to the surface with increasing winds through the
afternoon. Expect north winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 to
40 mph. There are some pockets of wind gusts 40-45 mph through the
afternoon hours, mainly across southwest Oklahoma and a Wind
Advisory Headline is not anticipated but may be needed if winds
continue to trend stronger. The cold air will also be delayed
Wednesday with temperatures still warming into the upper 50s to
lower 60s across much of southern Oklahoma and into western north
Texas. The coldest airmass with the system will keep to our east and
therefore the post-frontal temperatures Wednesday in
central/northern Oklahoma will be only slightly below normal in the
lower 50s. Mostly wind-driven elevated fire weather conditions will
return again Wednesday afternoon with RH values generally expected
to be around 30-45 percent.

The cooler post-frontal airmass will be quickly be scoured with a
return to southwesterly surface flow and warm downsloping.
Temperatures will rise back to above normal in the 60s to lower 70s,
especially near the 100th meridian and into western Oklahoma and
adjacent portions of western north Texas. With the surface high
lingering to our east, cooler temperatures in the 50s will still
remain across central and into eastern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1242 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

The approach of a strong southeastward-diving upper wave late in
the week will foster another chance for a strong frontal passage
and associated cooler temperatures. While the initial front looks
to sweep across the forecast area early on Friday, seasonable
conditions (50s) are currently advertised during the daytime. With
another bout of gusty (>30-35 mph) northerly winds and low
relative humidity (<20-25%), a potentially concerning fire
environment is possible on Friday afternoon, particularly across western
Oklahoma.

The brunt of the associated cooler airmass will begin to be felt by
Saturday morning, as a 1032+ millibar surface high quickly races
southward across the Central Plains. The associated track of the
aforementioned surface high (and associated upper trough) will be
significant players on sensible conditions by Saturday afternoon
and again on Sunday. We continue to note a large spread in
potential high temperatures on Sunday (upper-30s/40s vs.
50s/low-60s) in ensemble guidance.

Our prolonged period of dry weather looks to continue through the
weekend, with nil chance for precipitation currently captured in
our gridded forecast.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Most of the forecast area is seeing clear skies this afternoon,
though high cloud cover is noted across the northern and southern
peripheries. Regardless, VFR skies continue. A cold front will
enter the area from the north around 05Z and push through rapidly
during the early morning hours. Winds will increase out of the
north and become gusty after daybreak. There is likely to be a
several-hour period of low-level northerly wind shear as well
immediately behind the front.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  44  52  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         41  56  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  43  59  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           37  52  26  67 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     41  50  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         45  58  28  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...04